Validating 'Belief in occurrence' for future autobiographical events

Belief in occurrence is theorized to play a central role in remembering autobiographical events. Ernst and D'Argembeau (2017) proposed that belief in occurrence also plays a key role in determining the "realness" of future events, or the subjective sense that imagined future events will genuinely occur. They reported data indicating that belief in occurrence for future events arises from the contextualization of imagined future events within autobiographical knowledge, and that such belief signals when simulated events are consistent with expectations and goals. The validity of their findings can be questioned because of the use of a single item to measure belief in occurrence. To further validate these propositions, we expanded an existing belief in occurrence scale to create parallel forms for measuring belief in occurrence for past and future events. In Study 1 (N=470) participants rated 3 past or 3 future events (recent, distant, and uncertain). Study 2 (N = 251) replicated Study 1 using French translations of the measures and a within-subjects design in which participants rated a past and a future event. Confirmatory structural modeling indicated that an eight-item belief in occurrence scale was a strong fit to the data, and that item loadings were invariant across event cues and temporal direction for belief in occurrence, spatial characteristic, and autonoetic awareness latent variables. These studies support the view that belief in occurrence appraisals for past and future events draw on overlapping processes. Relationships between the latent variables and other predictors of remembering or forecasting events are discussed.