The paper provides real-time estimates of the euro-area output gap, based on a standard medium scale DSGE model estimated recursively with Bayesian techniques over the period 1985q1-2019q2. Unlike measures of output gap obtained by means of statistical filtering techniques, real-time DSGE-based estimates are remarkably stable and hence are less prone to ex-post revisions, which implies a higher reliability over time of model-based measures of the output gap.
Reliable real-time estimates of the euro-area output gap / Burlon, L.; D'Imperio, P.. - In: JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS. - ISSN 0164-0704. - 64:(2020), p. 103191. [10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103191]
Reliable real-time estimates of the euro-area output gap
D'Imperio P.
2020
Abstract
The paper provides real-time estimates of the euro-area output gap, based on a standard medium scale DSGE model estimated recursively with Bayesian techniques over the period 1985q1-2019q2. Unlike measures of output gap obtained by means of statistical filtering techniques, real-time DSGE-based estimates are remarkably stable and hence are less prone to ex-post revisions, which implies a higher reliability over time of model-based measures of the output gap.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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