Objective:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a global health emergency caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This study aimed to evaluate whether technical analysis (TA) indicators, commonly used in the financial market to spot security price trend reversals, might be proficiently used also to anticipate a possible increase of SARS-Cov-2 spread.Methods:Analysis was performed on datasets from Italy, Iran and Brazil. TA indicators tested were: 1) the combined use of a faster (3-days) and a slower (20-days) simple moving averages (SMA). 2) the Moving Average Converge/Divergence/MACD. 3) the divergence in the direction of the number of new daily cases trend and the corresponding MACD histogram.Results:We found that the use of both fast/slow SMAs and MACD provided a reliable signal of trend inversion of SARS-Cov-2 spread. Results were consistent for all the three countries considered. The trend reversals signaled by the indicators were always followed by a sustained trend persistence until a new signal of reversal appeared.Conclusions:TA indicators tested here proved to be reliable tools to identify in the short mid-term a subsequent change of direction of viral spread trend either downward, upward or sideward.

Predicting SARS-CoV-2 infection trend using technical analysis indicators / Paroli, M.; Sirinian, M. I.. - In: DISASTER MEDICINE AND PUBLIC HEALTH PREPAREDNESS. - ISSN 1935-7893. - 15:1(2021), pp. e10-e14. [10.1017/dmp.2020.254]

Predicting SARS-CoV-2 infection trend using technical analysis indicators

Paroli M.
Primo
Conceptualization
;
Sirinian M. I.
Secondo
Conceptualization
2021

Abstract

Objective:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a global health emergency caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This study aimed to evaluate whether technical analysis (TA) indicators, commonly used in the financial market to spot security price trend reversals, might be proficiently used also to anticipate a possible increase of SARS-Cov-2 spread.Methods:Analysis was performed on datasets from Italy, Iran and Brazil. TA indicators tested were: 1) the combined use of a faster (3-days) and a slower (20-days) simple moving averages (SMA). 2) the Moving Average Converge/Divergence/MACD. 3) the divergence in the direction of the number of new daily cases trend and the corresponding MACD histogram.Results:We found that the use of both fast/slow SMAs and MACD provided a reliable signal of trend inversion of SARS-Cov-2 spread. Results were consistent for all the three countries considered. The trend reversals signaled by the indicators were always followed by a sustained trend persistence until a new signal of reversal appeared.Conclusions:TA indicators tested here proved to be reliable tools to identify in the short mid-term a subsequent change of direction of viral spread trend either downward, upward or sideward.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11573/1479010
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