An innovative methodological approach for the analysis of the effects of urban interventions on property prices

The evaluation of the effects that an urban intervention generates on the area in which it is realized, and more generally on the city-system, plays a central role in the definition of its effectiveness, as it measures the effects that may derive from its implementation in terms of improving the quality level of the natural and built environment. The present research intends to propose and test a methodological and operational approach to evaluate, with quantitative indicators, the effects that an urban redevelopment initiative can have on property prices. In particular, the aim of the work concerns the development of a procedural protocol articulated into clear and replicable phases, in order to support the analysis of the urban transformation effects. The protocol is applied to four redevelopment projects currently in progress, located in four municipal trade areas in the city of Bari (Southern Italy). For each urban area, a sample of two hundred residential properties sold in the period 2017-2019 has been collected. The implementation of a genetic algorithm has allowed the definition of the econometric price function, able of identifying the set of variables - intrinsic and extrinsic – which, in each of the four intervention areas, contributes to the formation of property prices in the “ante-project” situation. The analysis of the effects of urban redevelopment in terms of variation of the urban quality has been carried out. Through an exogenous approach based on the interview of experts and community individuals, the values of the factors related to the urban quality following the implementation of the projects have been determined again (“post-project” situation). By inserting the new values into the econometric price functions already found, the market values of the post-project situation have been estimated. The comparison between ex ante and ex post market values shows the increase in property prices following the redevelopment initiative and allows to quantify it, confirming the full consistency with the expected empirical trends.