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EnglishMosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission has almost exclusively been detected in the tropics despite the distributions of its primary vectors extending farther into temperate regions. Therefore, it is unknown whether ZIKV's range has reached a temperature-dependent limit, or if it can spread into temperate climates. Using field-collected mosquitoes for biological relevance, we found that two common temperate mosquito species,Aedes albopictusandOchlerotatus detritus, were competent for ZIKV. We orally exposed mosquitoes to ZIKV and held them at between 17 and 31 degrees C, estimated the time required for mosquitoes to become infectious, and applied these data to a ZIKV spatial risk model. We identified a minimum temperature threshold for the transmission of ZIKV by mosquitoes between 17 and 19 degrees C. Using these data, we generated standardized basic reproduction numberR(0)-based risk maps and we derived estimates for the length of the transmission season for recent and future climate conditions. Our standardizedR(0)-based risk maps show potential risk of ZIKV transmission beyond the current observed range in southern USA, southern China and southern European countries. Transmission risk is simulated to increase over southern and Eastern Europe, northern USA and temperate regions of Asia (northern China, southern Japan) in future climate scenarios.
Potential for Zika virus transmission by mosquitoes in temperate climates / Blagrove, Msc; Caminade, C; Diggle, Pj; Patterson, Ei; Sherlock, K; Chapman, Ge; Hesson, J; Metelmann, S; McCall, Pj; Lycett, G; Medlock, J; Hughes, Gl; della Torre, A; Baylis, M. - In: PROCEEDINGS - ROYAL SOCIETY. BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES. - ISSN 0962-8452. - 287:1930(2020), pp. 1-10. [10.1098/rspb.2020.0119]
| Titolo: | Potential for Zika virus transmission by mosquitoes in temperate climates | |
| Autori: | ||
| Data di pubblicazione: | 2020 | |
| Rivista: | ||
| Citazione: | Potential for Zika virus transmission by mosquitoes in temperate climates / Blagrove, Msc; Caminade, C; Diggle, Pj; Patterson, Ei; Sherlock, K; Chapman, Ge; Hesson, J; Metelmann, S; McCall, Pj; Lycett, G; Medlock, J; Hughes, Gl; della Torre, A; Baylis, M. - In: PROCEEDINGS - ROYAL SOCIETY. BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES. - ISSN 0962-8452. - 287:1930(2020), pp. 1-10. [10.1098/rspb.2020.0119] | |
| Handle: | http://hdl.handle.net/11573/1463788 | |
| Appartiene alla tipologia: | 01a Articolo in rivista |
File allegati a questo prodotto
| File | Note | Tipologia | Licenza | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus_Potential_ 2020.pdf | Versione editoriale (versione pubblicata con il layout dell'editore) |  | Open Access Visualizza/Apri |
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