Hydropower generation in future climate scenarios

Knowledge on the effects of climate change in a systemcan contribute to the bettermanagement of itswater and energy resources. This study evaluates the consequences of alterations in the rainfall and temperature patterns for a hydroelectric plant. The methodology adopted consists of four steps. First, a hydrologicalmodel is developed for the chosen basin following a semi-distributed and conceptual approach. The hydrological model is calibrated utilizing the optimization algorithm Shuffled Complex Evolution - University of Arizona (SCE-UA) and then validated. Secondly, a hydropowermodel is developed for a hydroelectric plant of the chosen basin. The hydropower model is adjusted to the physical characteristics of the plant. Thirdly, future climate scenarios are extracted from the literature for the studied area. These scenarios include quantitative and seasonal climate variations, aswell as different initial reservoir levels. Fourth, the hydrological-hydropowermodel is simulated for 52 scenarios and the impact of changes in the rainfall and temperature patterns for hydropower generation is evaluated. For each scenario, thewater storage in the reservoir and energy produced by the plant are analyzed. The financial impact for extreme scenarios is presented. The methodology is applied to the Três Marias hydroelectric plant at the upper São Francisco river basin (Brazil) and it can be replicated to any other hydropower system. The results show that extreme positive values predicted for rainfallwill likely not cause issues to the plant, considering a moderate rise in temperature. However, negative predictions for rainfall, regardless of changes in temperature, should be an alert to the authorities responsible for water and energy resources management.