ArielRad: the Ariel radiometric model

ArielRad, the Ariel radiometric model, is a simulator developed to address the challenges in optimising the space mission science payload and to demonstrate its compliance with the performance requirements. Ariel, the Atmospheric Remote Sensing Infrared Exoplanet Large-survey, has been selected by ESA as the M4 mission in the Cosmic Vision programme and, during its 4 years primary operation, will provide the first unbiased spectroscopic survey of a large and diverse sample of transiting exoplanet atmospheres. To allow for an accurate study of the mission, ArielRad uses a physically motivated noise model to estimate contributions arising from stationary processes, and includes margins for correlated and time-dependent noise sources. We show that the measurement uncertainties are dominated by the photon statistic, and that an observing programme with about 1000 exoplanetary targets can be completed during the primary mission lifetime.