Analisi dei flussi potenziali di interscambio commerciale nel Mercato Comune PanEuropeo

The work aims to predict the potential trade flows within Europe after the enlargement of the European Union towards the Central Eastern European Countries (CEECs). It tests also, using a gravity approach, a number of dummy variables in order to give some insights on the role of the “historical and institutional dimension” on the current patterns of trade. This point is supposed to be particularly important in the case of the CEECs. Although there is not a strict relationship between current Central and Eastern European States and the former “Big Empires” of the area, nevertheless it is undeniable that some cultural and institutional differences among the CEECs still exist and they are, at least, partially linked to their different historical experiences. The analysis also contributes to the present debate on the phenomenon of “transition”, giving some insights into the actual situation and perspectives of the future Pan-European Common Market. Theoretical backgrounds are the bilateral trade models presented during the early years of the transition era by Wang and Winters (1991), Collins and Rodrik (1991) and Baldwin (1994).