Future energy demands of European buildings in the framework of climate change: A scoping study

Climate change is considered an important global threat, with a significant impact on the energy performance, since buildings will be subjected to higher average outdoor temperatures. This paper explores the relative impact of global warming across the different regional climates of Europe comparing present and estimated future energy needs of a hypothetical residential house located in 19 cities characterized by different latitude and Köppen-Geiger class. Building performance simulations with EnergyPlus are performed in order to simulate the heating and cooling needs of the building and the associated CO2 emissions in the present and in the future. The progressive increase in average temperatures in 2050 and 2080 leads to a general decrease of thermal energy request for heating and to an increase in the demand for electricity for cooling especially in the southern Europe, where high carbon intensity coefficients cause large CO2 emissions. The resulting vicious circle can be interrupted by increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and properly converting thermoelectric power plants.