Verso nuovi equilibri nel Pacifico occidentale

The essay first takes into consideration the shift in the balance of power in the Far East since the end of the Cold War. It focuses on the changes that have taken place in the Pacific from the Obama era to the Trump presidency, especially from the point of view of the so-called “Thucydides” and “Churchill” Traps. Within such a framework, it discusses the core reasons for the rivalry between the Popular Republic of China and the United States, as well as the theory of a clash between the two powers that is imminent and inevitable. In this connection, the essay also examines the role of Japan and the speculation that Japan is going to endeavour to achieve a true rearmament, by relinquishing the so-called Yoshida doctrine and the pacifism pursued after the Pacific War. The conclusion is that the above speculation is probably far-fetched, despite the fact that Japanese foreign policy is really set on a new course. We can probably expect to see a kind of entente or alliance between the United States and Tokyo, one roughly similar to that existing between Washington, Australia and New Zealand since the ANZUS treaty of 1951.