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Catalogo dei prodotti della ricerca
Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 / Lozano, Rafael; Fullman, Nancy; Abate, Degu; Abay, Solomon M; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbasi, Nooshin; Abbastabar, Hedayat; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdela, Jemal; Abdelalim, Ahmed; Abdel-Rahman, Omar; Abdi, Alireza; Abdollahpour, Ibrahim; Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi; Abebe, Nebiyu Dereje; Abebe, Zegeye; Abejie, Ayenew Negesse; Abera, Semaw F; Abil, Olifan Zewdie; Aboyans, Victor; Abraha, Haftom Niguse; Abrham, Aklilu Roba; Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me; Abyu, Gebre Y; Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou; Acharya, Dilaram; Acharya, Pawan; Adamu, Abdu A; Adebayo, Oladimeji M; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji; Adekanmbi, Victor; Adetokunboh, Olatunji O; Adhena, Beyene Meressa; Adhikari, Tara Ballav; Adib, Mina G; Adou, Arsène Kouablan; Adsuar, Jose C; Afarideh, Mohsen; Afshari, Mahdi; Afshin, Ashkan; Agarwal, Gina; Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi; Agius, Dominic; Agrawal, Anurag; Agrawal, Sutapa; Ahmadi, Alireza; Ahmadi, Mehdi; Ahmadieh, Hamid; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Ahmed, Sayem; Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie; Akanda, Ali S; Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil; Akibu, Mohammed; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola; Akinyemiju, Tomi; Akseer, Nadia; Alahdab, Fares; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Tahiya; Albujeer, Ammar; Alebel, Animut; Alene, Kefyalew Addis; Al-Eyadhy, Ayman; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Raghib; Alijanzadeh, Mehran; Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza; Aljunid, Syed Mohamed; Alkerwi, Ala'A; Alla, François; Allebeck, Peter; Allen, Christine A; Almasi, Ali; Al-Maskari, Fatma; Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M; Alonso, Jordi; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M; Alsharif, Ubai; Altirkawi, Khalid; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Azmeraw T; Amenu, Kebede; Amini, Erfan; Ammar, Walid; Anber, Nahla Hamed; Anderson, Jason A; Andrei, Catalina Liliana; Androudi, Sofia; Animut, Megbaru Debalkie; Anjomshoa, Mina; Ansari, Hossein; Ansariadi, Ansariadi; Ansha, Mustafa Geleto; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Anwari, Palwasha; Appiah, Lambert Tetteh; Aremu, Olatunde; Areri, Habtamu Abera; Ärnlöv, Johan; Arora, Monika; Aryal, Krishna K; Asayesh, Hamid; Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay; Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal; Asghar, Rana Jawad; Assadi, Reza; Ataro, Zerihun; Atique, Suleman; Atre, Sachin R; Atteraya, Madhu Sudhan; Ausloos, Marcel; Avila-Burgos, Leticia; Avokpaho, Euripide F G A; Awasthi, Ashish; Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina; Ayele, Henok Tadesse; Ayele, Yohanes; Ayer, Rakesh; Azarpazhooh, Mahmoud Reza; Azzopardi, Peter S; Azzopardi-Muscat, Natasha; Babalola, Tesleem Kayode; Babazadeh, Arefeh; Badali, Hamid; Badawi, Alaa; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Bali, Ayele Geleto; Banach, Maciej; Banerjee, Amitava; Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar; Banstola, Amrit; Barac, Aleksandra; Barboza, Miguel A; Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn; Bärnighausen, Till Winfried; Barrero, Lope H; Barthelemy, Celine M; Bassat, Quique; Basu, Arindam; Basu, Sanjay; Battista, Robert J; Baune, Bernhard T; Baynes, Habtamu Wondifraw; Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad; Bedi, Neeraj; Beghi, Ettore; Behzadifar, Masoud; Behzadifar, Meysam; Béjot, Yannick; Bekele, Bayu Begashaw; Belachew, Abate Bekele; Belay, Aregawi Gebreyesus; Belay, Saba Abraham; Belay, Yihalem Abebe; Bell, Michelle L; Bello, Aminu K; Bennett, Derrick A; Bensenor, Isabela M; Benzian, Habib; Berhane, Adugnaw; Berhe, Abadi Kidanemariam; Berman, Adam E; Bernabe, Eduardo; Bernstein, Robert S; Bertolacci, Gregory J; Beuran, Mircea; Beyranvand, Tina; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhalla, Ashish; Bhansali, Anil; Bhattarai, Suraj; Bhaumik, Soumyadeep; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Biadgo, Belete; Biehl, Molly H; Bijani, Ali; Bikbov, Boris; Bililign, Nigus; Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat; Birlik, Sait Mentes; Birungi, Charles; Bisanzio, Donal; Biswas, Tuhin; Bitew, Helen; Bizuneh, Hailemichael; Bjertness, Espen; Bobasa, Eshetu Mulisa; Boufous, Soufiane; Bourne, Rupert; Bozorgmehr, Kayvan; Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi; Brainin, Michael; Brant, Luisa C; Brauer, Michael; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas J K; Briant, Paul Svitil; Britton, Gabrielle; Brugha, Traolach; Bukhman, Gene; Busse, Reinhard; Butt, Zahid A; Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero; Callender, Charlton SKH; Campos-Nonato, Ismael R; Campuzano Rincon, Julio Cesar; Cano, Jorge; Car, Josip; Car, Mate; Cárdenas, Rosario; Carrero, Juan J; Carter, Austin; Carvalho, Félix; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A; Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline; Castro, Franz; Causey, Kate; Çavlin, Alanur; Cercy, Kelly M; Cerin, Ester; Chaiah, Yazan; Chalek, Julian; Chang, Hsing-Yi; Chang, Jung-Chen; Chattopadhyay, Aparajita; Chattu, Vijay Kumar; Chaturvedi, Pankaj; Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia; Chin, Ken Lee; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe; Chitheer, Abdulaal; Choi, Jee-Young J; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christensen, Hanne; Christopher, Devasahayam J; Chung, Sheng-Chia; Cicuttini, Flavia M; Ciobanu, Liliana G; Cirillo, Massimo; Claro, Rafael M; Claßen, Thomas Khaled Dwayne; Cohen, Aaron J; Collado-Mateo, Daniel; Cooper, Cyrus; Cooper, Leslie Trumbull; Cornaby, Leslie; Cortinovis, Monica; Costa, Megan; Cousin, Ewerton; Cromwell, Elizabeth A; Crowe, Christopher Stephen; Cunningham, Matthew; Daba, Alemneh Kabeta; Dadi, Abel Fekadu; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Dang, Anh Kim; Dargan, Paul I; Daryani, Ahmad; Das, Siddharth K; Das Gupta, Rajat; das Neves, José; Dasa, Tamirat Tesfaye; Dash, Aditya Prasad; Davis, Adrian C; Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil; Davletov, Kairat; Dayama, Anand; de Courten, Barbora; De Leo, Diego; De Neve, Jan-Walter; De Steur, Hans; Degefa, Meaza Girma; Degenhardt, Louisa; Degfie, Tizta Tilahun; Deiparine, Selina; Dellavalle, Robert P; Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam; Demtsu, Balem; Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar; Deribe, Kebede; Dervenis, Nikolaos; Dessie, Getenet Ayalew; Dey, Subhojit; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Dhimal, Meghnath; Dicker, Daniel; Dinberu, Mesfin Tadese; Ding, Eric L; Djalalinia, Shirin; Do, Huyen Phuc; Dokova, Klara; Doku, David Teye; Douwes-Schultz, Dirk; Driscoll, Tim Robert; Duan, Leilei; Dubey, Manisha; Dubljanin, Eleonora; Duken, Eyasu Ejeta; Duncan, Bruce B; Duraes, Andre R; Ebrahimpour, Soheil; Edvardsson, David; El Bcheraoui, Charbel; Eldrenkamp, Erika; El-Khatib, Ziad; Elyazar, Iqbal RF; Enayati, Ahmadali; Endries, Aman Yesuf; Eshrati, Babak; Eskandarieh, Sharareh; Esteghamati, Alireza; Esteghamati, Sadaf; Estep, Kara; Fakhar, Mahdi; Fakhim, Hamed; Fanzo, Jessica; Faramarzi, Mahbobeh; Fareed, Mohammad; Farhadi, Farzaneh; Farid, Talha A; Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sá; Farioli, Andrea; Faro, Andre; Farvid, Maryam S; Farzadfar, Farshad; Farzaei, Mohammad Hosein; Farzam, Hossein; Fazaeli, Ali Akbar; Fazeli, Mir Sohail; Feigin, Valery L; Feigl, Andrea B; Fekadu, Wubalem; Feldman, Rachel; Fentahun, Netsanet; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Fernandes, Eduarda; Fernandes, Joao C; Feyissa, Garumma Tolu; Fijabi, Daniel Obadare; Filip, Irina; Finegold, Samuel; Finger, Jonas David; Fischer, Florian; Fitzmaurice, Christina; Flor, Luisa Sorio; Foigt, Nataliya A; Foreman, Kyle J; Frank, Tahvi D; Franklin, Richard Charles; Fukumoto, Takeshi; Fukutaki, Kai; Fuller, John E; Fürst, Thomas; Furtado, João M; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Gallus, Silvano; Gankpe, Fortune Gbetoho; Gansevoort, Ron T; Garcia, Ana Cristina; Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L; Garcia-Gordillo, Miguel A; Gardner, William M; Gebre, Abadi Kahsu; Gebre, Teshome; Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe; Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde; Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay; Gebremichael, Bereket; Gebremichael, Teklu Gebrehiwo; Gelano, Tilayie Feto; Geleijnse, Johanna M; Geramo, Yilma Chisha Dea; Getachew, Sefonias; Gething, Peter W; Gezae, Kebede Embaye; Ghadami, Mohammad Rasoul; Ghadimi, Reza; Ghadiri, Keyghobad; Ghasemi-Kasman, Maryam; Ghiasvand, Hesam; Ghimire, Mamata; Ghoshal, Aloke Gopal; Giampaoli, Simona; Gill, Paramjit Singh; Gill, Tiffany K; Giussani, Giorgia; Gnedovskaya, Elena V; Goldberg, Ellen M; Goli, Srinivas; Gona, Philimon N; Goodridge, Amador; Gopalani, Sameer Vali; Gorman, Taren M; Goto, Atsushi; Goulart, Alessandra C; Goulart, Bárbara Niegia Garcia; Grada, Ayman; Griswold, Max G; Grosso, Giuseppe; Gugnani, Harish Chander C; Guillemin, Francis; Guimaraes, Andre Luiz Sena; Guo, Yuming; Gupta, Prakash C; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gupta, Tanush; Ha, Giang Hai; Haagsma, Juanita A; Hachinski, Vladimir; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Haghparast Bidgoli, Hassan; Hagos, Tekleberhan B; Haile, Michael Tamene; Hailegiyorgis, Tewodros Tesfa; Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa; Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin; Haj-Mirzaian, Arya; Hamadeh, Randah R; Hamidi, Samer; Hankey, Graeme J; Harb, Hilda L; Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai; Haririan, Hamidreza; Haro, Josep Maria; Hasan, Mehedi; Hassankhani, Hadi; Hassen, Hamid Yimam; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hawley, Caitlin N; Hay, Simon I; He, Yihua; Hedayatizadeh-Omran, Akbar; Hegazy, Mohamed I; Heibati, Behzad; Heidari, Behnam; Heidari, Mohsen; Hendrie, Delia; Henok, Andualem; Heredia-Pi, Ileana; Herteliu, Claudiu; Heydarpour, Behzad; Heydarpour, Fatemeh; Heydarpour, Sousan; Hibstu, Desalegn T; Híjar, Martha; Hoek, Hans W; Hoffman, Daniel J; Hole, Michael K; Homaie Rad, Enayatollah; Hoogar, Praveen; Horita, Nobuyuki; Hosgood, H Dean; Hosseini, Seyed Mostafa; Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi; Hostiuc, Mihaela; Hostiuc, Sorin; Hotez, Peter J; Hoy, Damian G; Hsairi, Mohamed; Hsiao, Thomas; Hu, Guoqing; Huang, John J; Hughes, Caitlyn; Huynh, Chantal K; Igumbor, Ehimario U; Ikeda, Chad Thomas; Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen; Iqbal, Usman; Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi; Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter; Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful; Islami, Farhad; Ivers, Rebecca Q; Izadi, Neda; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Jahangiry, Leila; Jahanmehr, Nader; Jain, Sudhir Kumar; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo; Jalu, Moti Tolera; Jamal, Amr A; James, Spencer L; Jassal, Simerjot K; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jha, Ravi Prakash; Jha, Vivekanand; Ji, John S; Johnson, Catherine O; Johnson, Sarah C; Jonas, Jost B; Jonnagaddala, Jitendra; Jorjoran Shushtari, Zahra; Joshi, Ankur; Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy; Jungari, Suresh Banayya; Jürisson, Mikk; K, Madhanraj; Kabir, Zubair; Kadel, Rajendra; Kahsay, Amaha; Kahssay, Molla; Kalani, Rizwan; Kapil, Umesh; Karami, Manoochehr; Karami Matin, Behzad; Karanikolos, Marina; Karimi, Narges; Karimi, Seyed M; Karimi-Sari, Hamidreza; Kasaeian, Amir; Kassa, Dessalegn H; Kassa, Getachew Mullu; Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale; Kassa, Zemenu Yohannes; Kassebaum, Nicholas J; Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kazemi, Zhila; Karyani, Ali Kazemi; Kazi, Dhruv Satish; Kc, Prakash; Kebede, Seifu; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga; Kemmer, Laura; Kemp, Grant Rodgers; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Keren, Andre; Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khafaei, Behzad; Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif; Khajavi, Alireza; Khalid, Nauman; Khalil, Ibrahim A; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb; Khan, Muhammad Ali; Khang, Young-Ho; Khanna, Tripti; Khater, Mona M; Khatony, Alireza; Khazaeipour, Zahra; Khazaie, Habibolah; Khoja, Abdullah T; Khosravi, Ardeshir; Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A; Kiarie, Helen W; Kibret, Getiye D; Kiirithio, Daniel N; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Jun Y; Kim, Young-Eun; Kim, Yun Jin; Kimokoti, Ruth W; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kinra, Sanjay; Kisa, Adnan; Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna; Kissoon, Niranjan; Kivimäki, Mika; Kocarnik, Jonathan M; Kochhar, Sonali; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kolola, Tufa; Kopec, Jacek A; Kosek, Margaret N; Kosen, Soewarta; Koul, Parvaiz A; Koyanagi, Ai; Kravchenko, Michael A; Krishan, Kewal; Krohn, Kristopher J; Kuate Defo, Barthelemy; Kucuk Bicer, Burcu; Kudom, Andreas A; Kulikoff, Xie Rachel; Kumar, G Anil; Kumar, Manasi; Kumar, Pushpendra; Kutz, Michael J; Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe; Lachat, Carl; Lad, Deepesh P; Lad, Sheetal D; Lafranconi, Alessandra; Lagat, Abraham K; Lal, Dharmesh Kumar; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lam, Hilton; Lami, Faris Hasan; Lamichhane, Prabhat; Lan, Qing; Lang, Justin J; Lansingh, Van C; Lansky, Sonia; Larson, Heidi J; Larsson, Anders O; Laryea, Dennis Odai; Lassi, Zohra S; Latifi, Arman; Lau, Kathryn Mei-Ming; Laxmaiah, Avula; Lazarus, Jeffrey V; Leasher, Janet L; Lebedev, Georgy; Ledesma, Jorge R; Lee, James B; Lee, Paul H; Leever, Andrew T; Leigh, James; Leinsalu, Mall; Leshargie, Cheru Tesema; Leung, Janni; Lewycka, Sonia; Li, Shanshan; Li, Xiaohong; Li, Yichong; Liang, Juan; Liang, Xiaofeng; Liben, Misgan Legesse; Lim, Lee-Ling; Limenih, Miteku Andualem; Linn, Shai; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lodha, Rakesh; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Lopez, Alan D; Lorkowski, Stefan; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lucchesi, Lydia R; Lyons, Ronan A; Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King; Mackay, Mark T; Maddison, Emilie R; Madotto, Fabiana; Maghavani, Dhaval P; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Mahotra, Narayan Bahadur; Majdan, Marek; Majdzadeh, Reza; Majeed, Azeem; Malekzadeh, Reza; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Mamun, Abdullah A; Manda, Ana-Laura; Mandarano-Filho, Luiz Garcia; Mangalam, Srikanth; Manguerra, Helena; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Mapoma, Chabila Christopher; Maravilla, Joemer C; Marcenes, Wagner; Marks, Ashley; Martin, Randall V; Martins, Sheila C O; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Martopullo, Ira; Mashamba-Thompson, Tivani Phosa; Massenburg, Benjamin Ballard; Mathur, Manu Raj; Maulik, Pallab K; Mazidi, Mohsen; Mcalinden, Colm; Mcgrath, John J; Mckee, Martin; Mcmahon, Brian J; Mehata, Suresh; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mehrotra, Ravi; Mehta, Kala M; Mehta, Varshil; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola; Mekonen, Tesfa; Mekonnen, Tefera C Chane; Meles, Hagazi Gebre; Melese, Addisu; Melku, Mulugeta; Memiah, Peter T N; Memish, Ziad A; Mendoza, Walter; Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese; Mengistu, Getnet; Mensah, George A; Mensink, Gert B M; Mereta, Seid Tiku; Meretoja, Atte; Meretoja, Tuomo J; Mestrovic, Tomislav; Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane; Miazgowski, Bartosz; Miazgowski, Tomasz; Millear, Anoushka I; Miller, Ted R; Miller-Petrie, Molly Katherine; Milne, George J; Mini, G. K.; Minnig, Shawn P; Mirabi, Parvaneh; Mirarefin, Mojde; Mirrakhimov, Erkin M; Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen; Mitchell, Philip B; Moazen, Babak; Moghadamnia, Ali Akbar; Mohajer, Bahram; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin; Mohammadi, Moslem; Mohammadifard, Noushin; Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, Mousa; Mohammed, Mohammed A; Mohammed, Shafiu; Mohan, Murali B V; Mohan, Viswanathan; Mohebi, Farnam; Moitra, Modhurima; Mokdad, Ali H; Molokhia, Mariam; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montañez, Julio Cesar; Moosazadeh, Mahmood; Moradi, Ghobad; Moradi, Mahmoudreza; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Moradinazar, Mehdi; Moraga, Paula; Morawska, Lidia; Morgado-da-Costa, Joana; Morisaki, Naho; Morrison, Shane Douglas; Mosapour, Abbas; Moschos, Marilita M; Mountjoy-Venning, W Cliff; Mouodi, Simin; Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam; Muche, Achenef Asmamaw; Muchie, Kindie Fentahun; Mueller, Ulrich Otto; Muhammed, Oumer Sada S; Mukhopadhyay, Satinath; Mullany, Erin C; Muller, Kate; Mumford, John Everett; Murhekar, Manoj; Murthy, G. V. S.; Murthy, Srinivas; Musa, Jonah; Musa, Kamarul Imran; Mustafa, Ghulam; Muthupandian, Saravanan; Nabhan, Ashraf F; Nachega, Jean B; Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman; Nagel, Gabriele; Naghavi, Mohsen; Naheed, Aliya; Nahvijou, Azin; Naidoo, Kovin; Naik, Gurudatta; Naik, Nitish; Najafi, Farid; Naldi, Luigi; Nam, Hae Sung; Nangia, Vinay; Nansseu, Jobert Richie; Nascimento, Bruno Ramos; Nawaz, Haseeb; Neamati, Nahid; Negoi, Ionut; Negoi, Ruxandra Irina; Neupane, Subas; Newton, Charles Richard James; Ngalesoni, Frida N; Ngunjiri, Josephine W; Nguyen, Anh; Nguyen, Grant; Nguyen, Ha; Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi; Nguyen, Huong Thanh; Nguyen, Minh; Nichols, Emma; Nigatu, Solomon Gedlu; Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini; Nirayo, Yirga Legesse; Nisar, Muhammad Imran; Nixon, Molly R; Nolutshungu, Nomonde; Nomura, Marika; Norheim, Ole F; Noroozi, Mehdi; Norrving, Bo; Noubiap, Jean Jacques; Nouri, Hamid Reza; Nourollahpour Shiadeh, Malihe; Nowroozi, Mohammad Reza; Nyasulu, Peter S; Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf; Ofori-Asenso, Richard; Ogah, Okechukwu Samuel; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene; Oh, In-Hwan; Okoro, Anselm; Oladimeji, Kelechi E; Oladimeji, Olanrewaju; Olagunju, Andrew T; Olagunju, Tinuke O; Olivares, Pedro R; Olsen, Helen Elizabeth; Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola; Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun; Ong, Kanyin L; Ong, Sok King; Oommen, Anu Mary; Opio, John Nelson; Oren, Eyal; Oros, Andrei; Ortega-Altamirano, Doris D V; Ortiz, Alberto; Ortiz, Justin R; Ortiz-Panozo, Eduardo; Ota, Erika; Otstavnov, Stanislav S; Owolabi, Mayowa Ojo; P A, Mahesh; Pakhale, Smita; Pakhare, Abhijit P; Pan, Wen-Harn; Pana, Adrian; Panda, Basant Kumar; Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra; Pandian, Jeyaraj Durai; Papantoniou, Nikolaos; Park, Eun-Kee; Parry, Charles D H; Parsian, Hadi; Patel, Shanti; Pati, Sanghamitra; Patle, Ajay; Patton, George C; Paturi, Vishnupriya Rao; Paudel, Deepak; Paulson, Katherine R; Pearce, Neil; Peprah, Emmanuel K; Pereira, David M; Perico, Norberto; Pervaiz, Aslam; Pesudovs, Konrad; Petri, William A; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael R; 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[10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32281-5]
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
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Nair;Khader, Yousef Saleh;Khafaei, Behzad;Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif;Khajavi, Alireza;Khalid, Nauman;Khalil, Ibrahim A;Khan, Ejaz Ahmad;Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb;Khan, Muhammad Ali;Khang, Young-Ho;Khanna, Tripti;Khater, Mona M;Khatony, Alireza;Khazaeipour, Zahra;Khazaie, Habibolah;Khoja, Abdullah T;Khosravi, Ardeshir;Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein;Khubchandani, Jagdish;Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A;Kiarie, Helen W;Kibret, Getiye D;Kiirithio, Daniel N;Kim, Daniel;Kim, Jun Y;Kim, Young-Eun;Kim, Yun Jin;Kimokoti, Ruth W;Kinfu, Yohannes;Kinra, Sanjay;Kisa, Adnan;Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna;Kissoon, Niranjan;Kivimäki, Mika;Kocarnik, Jonathan M;Kochhar, Sonali;Kokubo, Yoshihiro;Kolola, Tufa;Kopec, Jacek A;Kosek, Margaret N;Kosen, Soewarta;Koul, Parvaiz A;Koyanagi, Ai;Kravchenko, Michael A;Krishan, Kewal;Krohn, Kristopher J;Kuate Defo, Barthelemy;Kucuk Bicer, Burcu;Kudom, Andreas A;Kulikoff, Xie Rachel;Kumar, G Anil;Kumar, Manasi;Kumar, Pushpendra;Kutz, Michael J;Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe;Lachat, Carl;Lad, Deepesh 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Akpojene;Oh, In-Hwan;Okoro, Anselm;Oladimeji, Kelechi E;Oladimeji, Olanrewaju;Olagunju, Andrew T;Olagunju, Tinuke O;Olivares, Pedro R;Olsen, Helen Elizabeth;Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola;Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun;Ong, Kanyin L;Ong, Sok King;Oommen, Anu Mary;Opio, John Nelson;Oren, Eyal;Oros, Andrei;Ortega-Altamirano, Doris D V;Ortiz, Alberto;Ortiz, Justin R;Ortiz-Panozo, Eduardo;Ota, Erika;Otstavnov, Stanislav S;Owolabi, Mayowa Ojo;P A, Mahesh;Pakhale, Smita;Pakhare, Abhijit P;Pan, Wen-Harn;Pana, Adrian;Panda, Basant Kumar;Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra;Pandian, Jeyaraj Durai;Papantoniou, Nikolaos;Park, Eun-Kee;Parry, Charles D H;Parsian, Hadi;Patel, Shanti;Pati, Sanghamitra;Patle, Ajay;Patton, George C;Paturi, Vishnupriya Rao;Paudel, Deepak;Paulson, Katherine R;Pearce, Neil;Peprah, Emmanuel K;Pereira, David M;Perico, Norberto;Pervaiz, Aslam;Pesudovs, Konrad;Petri, William A;Petzold, Max;Phillips, Michael R;Pigott, David M;Pillay, Julian David;Pirsaheb, Meghdad;Pletcher, Martin;Pond, Constance Dimity;Postma, Maarten J;Pourshams, Akram;Poustchi, Hossein;Prabhakaran, Dorairaj;Prakash, Swayam;Prasad, Narayan;Purcell, Caroline A;Pyakurel, Manita;Qorbani, Mostafa;Quansah, Reginald;Radfar, Amir;Rafay, Anwar;Rafiei, Alireza;Rahim, Fakher;Rahimi, Kazem;Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin;Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa;Rahman, Mahfuzar;Rahman, Md Shafiur;Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur;Rahman, Muhammad Aziz;Rahman, Sajjad ur;Rai, Rajesh Kumar;Rajati, Fatemeh;Rajsic, Sasa;Ram, Usha;Rana, Saleem M;Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal;Ranjan, Prabhat;Rasella, Davide;Rawaf, David Laith;Rawaf, Salman;Razo-García, Christian;Reddy, K Srinath;Reiner, Robert C;Reis, Cesar;Reitsma, Marissa B;Remuzzi, Giuseppe;Renzaho, Andre M N;Resnikoff, Serge;Reynales-Shigematsu, Luz Myriam;Rezaei, Satar;Rezaeian, Shahab;Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh;Riahi, Seyed Mohammad;Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz P;Rios-Blancas, Maria Jesus;Roba, Kedir Teji;Roberts, Nicholas L S;Roever, Leonardo;Ronfani, Luca;Roshandel, Gholamreza;Rostami, Ali;Roth, Gregory A;Roy, 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2018
Abstract
Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11573/1197192
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simulazione ASN
Il report seguente simula gli indicatori relativi alla propria produzione scientifica in relazione alle soglie ASN 2023-2025 del proprio SC/SSD. Si ricorda che il superamento dei valori soglia (almeno 2 su 3) è requisito necessario ma non sufficiente al conseguimento dell'abilitazione. La simulazione si basa sui dati IRIS e sugli indicatori bibliometrici alla data indicata e non tiene conto di eventuali periodi di congedo obbligatorio, che in sede di domanda ASN danno diritto a incrementi percentuali dei valori. La simulazione può differire dall'esito di un’eventuale domanda ASN sia per errori di catalogazione e/o dati mancanti in IRIS, sia per la variabilità dei dati bibliometrici nel tempo. Si consideri che Anvur calcola i valori degli indicatori all'ultima data utile per la presentazione delle domande.
La presente simulazione è stata realizzata sulla base delle specifiche raccolte sul tavolo ER del Focus Group IRIS coordinato dall’Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia e delle regole riportate nel DM 589/2018 e allegata Tabella A. Cineca, l’Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia e il Focus Group IRIS non si assumono alcuna responsabilità in merito all’uso che il diretto interessato o terzi faranno della simulazione. Si specifica inoltre che la simulazione contiene calcoli effettuati con dati e algoritmi di pubblico dominio e deve quindi essere considerata come un mero ausilio al calcolo svolgibile manualmente o con strumenti equivalenti.