VADASE reliability and accuracy of real-time displacement estimation: Application to the Central Italy 2016 earthquakes

The goal of this article is the illustration of the newfunctionalities of the VADASE (Variometric Approach for Displacements Analysis Stand-alone Engine) processing approach. VADASE was presented in previousworks as an approach able to estimate in real time the velocities and displacements in a global reference frame (ITRF), using high-rate (1 Hz or more) carrier phase observations and broadcast products (orbits, clocks) collected by a stand-alone GNSS receiver, achieving a displacements accuracy within 1-2 cm (usually better) over intervals up to a few minutes. It has been well known since the very first implementation and testing of VADASE that the estimated displacements might be impacted by two different effects: spurious spikes in the velocities due to outliers (consequently, displacements, obtained through velocities integration, are severely corrupted) and trends in the displacements time series, mainly due to broadcast orbit and clock errors. Two strategies are herein introduced, respectively based on Leave-One-Out cross-validation (VADASE-LOO) for a receiver autonomous outlier detection, and on a network augmentation strategy to filter common trends out (A-VADASE); they are combined (first, VADASE-LOO; second, A-VADASE) for a complete solution. Moreover, starting fromthis VADASE improved solution, an additional strategy is proposed to estimate in real time the overall coseismic displacement occurring at each GNSS receiver. New VADASE advances are successfully applied to the GPS data collected during the recent three strong earthquakes that occurred in Central Italy on 24 August and 26 and 30 October 2016, and the results are herein presented and discussed. The VADASE real-time estimated coseismic displacements are compared to the static ones derived from the daily solutions obtained within the standard post-processing procedure by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia.