Possible predicative role of electrical risk score on transcatheter aortic valve replacement outcomes in older patients. preliminary data

Background:Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) is an effective procedure capable to change the natural history of the degenerative aortic valve stenosis. Despite the TAVR, the patients with advanced valve disease and severe myocardial damage (low flow, gradient and ejection fraction)show high mortality level. Aim of this study was toevaluate the predicative power of a noninvasive and inexpensive test obtained by means of a simple standard 12-leads electrocardiogram,known as the Electrical Risk Score (ERS). Methods: ERS was composed by seven simple ECG markers: heart rate (>75 bpm); QRS duration (>110 ms), left ventricular hypertrophy (Sokolow-Lyon criteria), delayed QRS transition zone (≥ V4), frontal QRS-T angle (>90°), long QTBazett (>450 ms for men and >460 in women) or JTBazett(330 ms for men and > 340 ms for women);long T peak to T end interval (Tp-e)( >89 ms). An ERS ≥ 4was considered high risk for all-cause or cardiovascular mortality.We calculated retrospectively the pre-procedure ERS in 40 TAVR patients after one year of follow-up. Results: In the follow up the all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were respectively 25% and 15%.None of survivors reported ERS ≥ 4,moreover, the ERS was the strongest predictor of all-cause (odd ratio 3.73, 95% CI: 1.44-9.66, p<0.05) or cardiovascular (odd ratio 3.95, 95% CI: 1.09-14.27, p<0.05) mortality.ROC curves showed that ERS had the widest significant sensitivity-specificity area under the curve (auc) predicting all-cause (auc: 0.855, p<0.05) or cardiovascular mortality (auc: 0.908, p<0.05). Conclusions:In this pivotal study, ERS resulted an useful tool to stratify the risk of mortality in one-year follow-up TAVR patients. Obviously, it is necessary to confirm these data in large prospective studies.