Toward a new cycle: Short-term population dynamics, gentrification, and re-urbanization of Milan (Italy)

After sequential cycles of urbanization and suburbanization, European cities underwent a (more or less intense) re-urbanization wave. The present study analyzes short-term population dynamics in the core of a large metropolitan region (Milan, northern Italy), providing evidence of spatially-heterogeneous re-urbanization characterized by spatially-complex population growth (or shrinkage) at a local scale. Population dynamics over 1999-2017 were assessed in 88 urban districts partitioning Milan0s municipal area and projected up to 2036 for the same spatial units. Empirical results identify spatially-complex and temporally non-linear dynamics with expanding or declining districts distributed heterogeneously across the study area. Multivariate analysis outlines a generalized population decline during 1999-2008 and an opposite pattern afterward (2008-2017), with spatially-homogeneous population expansion expected in the near future. Spatial analysis finally highlights that local-scale population growth rates were more clustered in 2008-2017 than in 1999-2008. While the population decreased continuously in the inner districts (<1 km from the city centre), sub-central districts (1-5 km far from the city centre) experienced mixed patterns of population growth and stability. These results confirm the relevance of local-scale policies managing urban renewal and rehabilitation and promoting metropolitan expansion in a spatially-coordinated manner.