Impatti dell'automazione sul mercato del lavoro. Prime stime per il caso italiano.

The causes of the present decline of demand in labor markets in developed countries are subject to considerable theoretical debate. More specifically, according to some authors, globalization and offshoring together with technological innovation, could lead to further negative impacts on real employment. Some studies estimate that the contribution of automation is the actual cause of job loss: in the US the introduction of robots by 2021 could lead to a cut of more than 6% of the workforce (FORRESTER 2016), and as much as 54% in Europe in the coming decades (Bowles 2014), although the greatest impact would occur in developing countries, where automation could weaken the traditional comparative advantages in terms of labor costs (UN 2016). The Italian case is particularly interesting, as the automation was introduced in large enterprises over three decades ago, determining a deep impact in terms of loss for low skilled jobs. This paper aims to provide a first quantification of the impacts on Italian labor market determined by the spread of latest technological innovations, both in terms of employment levels and social/territorial mobility, by differentiating its effects per macro-geographical breakdown of the country.