MARS – A fresh look at risk assessment modelling and effective safety data communication

Aviation industry’s safety management is strictly regulated since the introduction of Safety Management System (SMS) concept and it is propagation through the industry and literature. Safety and Risk are in the focus of the constant research ranging from strictly technical and technological to organisational influence. Still effective and practical assessing and communicating the risk is a challenge thus diminishing optimal enhancing of organisations’ safety level. The paper will analyse the literature for the SMS in aviation for their ability to account for the complex dynamics from which safety in these kinds of systems tends to emerge – or not. Evolution of safety assessment methods and methodologies (including) the systemic models (RAG, FRAM, STAMP) will be presented. After this, it will introduce MARS as a model by describing the general features and their connection with biometrics for varied practical and theoretical reasons. Conceptual description and presentation of the model will be followed by presenting mathematical approach in the model. General presentation of mathematical approach will be applied to a case study involving aviation organisation and related data (related to Human, Technical and Environment factors). Finally one of these factors will be defined and analysed more in detail demonstrating the effectiveness and application of the MARS on the operational data.