Un modello previsionale per le sanzioni bancarie in Italia

By building up a database comprehensive of sanctions towards Italian banks, this research identifies few financial indicators explicative of enforcement actions to provide banks with a forecasting model to evaluate their strategies’ suitability for compliance and resilience to adverse shocks. The results, to the extent of both variables selection and size of the marginal effects, are aligned with the output of the stress tests. The variables positively affecting the resilience to adverse shocks are the ones associated with a lower probability of sanctions. We find a strong predictive power for assets and loans growth rates, indexes of productivity, efficiency and risk, and capital and liquidity ratios. The model performs well in terms of forecast accuracy, mainly taking into account the larger explicative power for sanctions related to credit risk management.