La valutazione di un intervento nel campo dei trasporti: gli effetti dell’incentivo Ecobonus

The ex post evaluation is a fundamental step to provide the policy makers with useful information about the implementation of past program. The present study focuses on the use of a method of evaluating causal effects produced by the Ecobonus incentive. It was granted to promote intermodal transport between road and sea. The evaluation method used is based on a counterfactual approach that compares the results generated with the introduction of the incentive scheme with the hypothetical results that would be obtained in the absence of it. It is the first time that the effects of this program are evaluated using a counterfactual framework. The performed analysis evaluates the validity of the incentive in terms of achieved modal transfer. The estimated average net effect was positive and equal to 58 percent of total traffic in the year 2011 on selected routes. The final conclusion is that Ecobonus has promoted the use of sea routes favoring savings in terms of lower environmental costs.