We present a novel methodology to compute conditional risk measures when the conditioning event depends on a number of random variables. Specifically, given a random vector (X,Y), we consider risk measures that express the risk of Y given that X assumes values in an extreme multidimensional region. In particular, the considered risky regions are related to the AND, OR, Kendall and Survival Kendall hazard scenarios that are commonly used in environmental literature. Several closed formulas are considered (especially in the AND and OR scenarios). An application to spatial risk analysis involving real data is discussed.

Conditional risk based on multivariate hazard scenarios / Bernardi, Mauro; Durante, Fabrizio; Jaworski, Piotr; Petrella, Lea; Salvadori, Gianfausto. - In: STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT. - ISSN 1436-3259. - STAMPA. - 32:(2018), pp. 203-211. [10.1007/s00477-017-1425-9]

Conditional risk based on multivariate hazard scenarios

Lea Petrella;
2018

Abstract

We present a novel methodology to compute conditional risk measures when the conditioning event depends on a number of random variables. Specifically, given a random vector (X,Y), we consider risk measures that express the risk of Y given that X assumes values in an extreme multidimensional region. In particular, the considered risky regions are related to the AND, OR, Kendall and Survival Kendall hazard scenarios that are commonly used in environmental literature. Several closed formulas are considered (especially in the AND and OR scenarios). An application to spatial risk analysis involving real data is discussed.
2018
Conditional distribution; Copula CoVaR; Hazard scenario; Structural risk 
01 Pubblicazione su rivista::01a Articolo in rivista
Conditional risk based on multivariate hazard scenarios / Bernardi, Mauro; Durante, Fabrizio; Jaworski, Piotr; Petrella, Lea; Salvadori, Gianfausto. - In: STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT. - ISSN 1436-3259. - STAMPA. - 32:(2018), pp. 203-211. [10.1007/s00477-017-1425-9]
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11573/1015934
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