Abstract. The paper offers a new estimate of the sensitivity of the Italy’s primary budget balance to macro-economic variables. The analysis has distinguishing features: detailed itemization of public finance aggregates; close attention to the statistical properties of the time series; joint estimation of elasticities with respect to both real GDP and inflation. First, the economic variables driving the automatic component were chosen. Second, when possible, a macroeconomic base was associated with each public finance item. Third, each tax base was regressed on the driving economic variables. Fourth, each budget item that was supposed to include an automatic component was regressed either on its own base or directly on the economic variables affecting the automatic components. The effects on public budget are simulated to investigate the consequences of a change in nominal and real GDP. J.E.L.:E32, E60
Abstract. The paper offers a new estimate of the sensitivity of the Italy’s primary budget balance to macro-economic variables. The analysis has distinguishing features: detailed itemization of public finance aggregates; close attention to the statistical properties of the time series; joint estimation of elasticities with respect to both real GDP and inflation. First, the economic variables driving the automatic component were chosen. Second, when possible, a macroeconomic base was associated with each public finance item. Third, each tax base was regressed on the driving economic variables. Fourth, each budget item that was supposed to include an automatic component was regressed either on its own base or directly on the economic variables affecting the automatic components. The effects on public budget are simulated to investigate the consequences of a change in nominal and real GDP. J.E.L.:E32, E60
The Automatic Reaction of the Italian Budget Balance to Fundamentals: An Econometric Estimate / Sergio, Ginebri; Maggi, Bernardo; Turco, Manuel. - In: APPLIED ECONOMICS. - ISSN 0003-6846. - 37:1(2005), pp. 67-81. [10.1080/0003684042000291326]
The Automatic Reaction of the Italian Budget Balance to Fundamentals: An Econometric Estimate
MAGGI, Bernardo;
2005
Abstract
Abstract. The paper offers a new estimate of the sensitivity of the Italy’s primary budget balance to macro-economic variables. The analysis has distinguishing features: detailed itemization of public finance aggregates; close attention to the statistical properties of the time series; joint estimation of elasticities with respect to both real GDP and inflation. First, the economic variables driving the automatic component were chosen. Second, when possible, a macroeconomic base was associated with each public finance item. Third, each tax base was regressed on the driving economic variables. Fourth, each budget item that was supposed to include an automatic component was regressed either on its own base or directly on the economic variables affecting the automatic components. The effects on public budget are simulated to investigate the consequences of a change in nominal and real GDP. J.E.L.:E32, E60I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
