Immigrants, natives and crime: a cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis

This study purpose is to verify if there is an association between foreign immigration and crime. In doing this, the study investigates also some satellite questions revolving around this possible association: the range of offences affected by immigration, the relationship between immigrant and native crime, and whether the immigration impact on crime is direct or indirect. These issues have been addressed through both a cross-sectional and a cross-sectional/time analysis. This double approach intends to find out whether variations over time in immigration and in crime confirm the synchronic analysis results, which could be biased by non-observed factors. The research is based on data of the Italian provinces. Italy represents a critical case for studying the migration-crime relationship, because in this country the rise in foreign immigration has been sudden and its pace feverish. The cross-sectional analysis findings show that crime rates are related to time-invariant factors and only marginally to immigration. On the contrary, the cross-sectional/time analysis shows that variations in immigration have had a positive impact on both the most serious and the most common offences. There is no evidence of indirect effects of immigration on crime or of a link with native crime. In contrast to previous literature regarding the U.S., Canada, and Australia, these results suggest that a tumultuous rise in immigration can affect crime rates.