Econometric modeling perspectives

In this chapter we present a reassessment of some recently proposed econometric methods for the analysis of continuous–time specifications of economic models. Given the vastness of this stream of the literature, that does not allow for a full exposition of the topic, we concentrate on the estimation and simulation analysis of a continuous–time econometric model based on a theoretical framework – the SETI model – developed in Padoan (1996). The application is almost completely instrumental to a more thorough analysis of methodological issues entailed with continuous–time econometrics. Nevertheless, it presents per se some interesting theoretical aspects such as the process of diffusion of ICT and the role of services in international diffusion of technology. The standard methods are not suitable for theoretical models in which disequilibrium analysis is necessary and, in general, presents a clear limitation when the structural multi-equation form of the model should be preserved. Thus we show how, by means of continuous–time econometric, it is possible to estimate the parameters of the model using the Full Information Maximum Likelihood techniques in a time series setup. Then, we extend the econometric analysis in order to evaluate the out-of-equilibrium dynamic properties of a system via simulation techniques. The declared aim of the present work is to define the conditions to the equilibrium and to discuss its stability properties. Furthermore, the application provides the guidelines for the formulation and empirical validation of a model considering growth-driven-by-technology phenomena, interactions between countries through trade effects, and the diffusion of technology. Finally, spatial aspects of the problem are explicitly taken into account.