Demographic effects of earthquakes in Center-South Italy

This paper evaluates the demographic effects of two major earthquakes - L’Aquila 2009 and Central Italy 2016 - in Central-Southern Italy, a wide area already experiencing depopulation due to factors unrelated to natural disasters. Using municipality-level data (2002- 2023) and a difference-in-differences design with multiple groups and periods, we estimate causal impacts on depopulation, age structure, natural dynamics, and migration. Results suggest an acceleration of the decline in the overall population of the area due to these natural disasters, especially among elder Italians, largely driven by out-migration, while natural demographic dynamics remained stable. Effects differ across disasters: the 2016 earthquake caused declines in all age groups, whereas in 2009 population losses among elderly Italians were offset by gains in working-age foreigners.