COVID-19 Threat and Uncertainty: How Outcome Anticipation Shapes Responses to the Unknown

Uncertainty was a common theme in political speeches, fundraising emails, and TV advertisements throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. The anxiety and distress felt by many all over the world was presumed to be directly tied to the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic. Yet, these negative feelings cannot be extricated from the negative outcomes associated with COVID-19: Serious illness, death, loss of a loved one, loss of a job, and loss of education for one's child, among others. In this chapter, we posit that negative feelings about the uncertainty engendered by the COVID-19 pandemic are due not to the uncertainty itself, but rather to expectations of negative outcomes to the pandemic, informed in part by people's past experiences. We bolster this argument using experimental data as well as findings that people who were less at risk for negative outcomes during the pandemic (e.g., those with a higher socioeconomic status) experienced less distress about it, and that people who were more at risk (e.g., people with chronic illness, healthcare professionals) experienced more distress. We also highlight the role of optimism and resilience in predicting more positive reactions to uncertain situations, including COVID-19, demonstrating that people's expectations of both positive outcomes and their own abilities to cope with potential negative outcomes inform their reactions to uncertainty.