By 1951, average fertility had fallen to just over two children per woman, and only five percent of children would die in their first ten years of life. A similar pattern of declining fertility and mortality rates, collectively known as the demographic transition, has been observed in every industrializing country. Financial projections for Social Security systems depend on many demographic, economic and social factors as well as the reduction of fertility rates and the ageing of a population. In order to address the need to develop reliable projections, it is unavoidable to detect appropriate measures to represent the future trends of the quantities of interest. The aim of the paper is apply to Italian data a mathematical scheme suitable for projecting the fertility rates and for measuring the uncertainty around these estimates. Finally a numerical application is provided.
Simulation framework in fertility projections / Russolillo, Maria; D'Amato, Valeria; G., Piscopo. - (2013), pp. 209-216. [10.1007/978-3-642-35467-0_22].
Simulation framework in fertility projections
D'AMATO, VALERIA;
2013
Abstract
By 1951, average fertility had fallen to just over two children per woman, and only five percent of children would die in their first ten years of life. A similar pattern of declining fertility and mortality rates, collectively known as the demographic transition, has been observed in every industrializing country. Financial projections for Social Security systems depend on many demographic, economic and social factors as well as the reduction of fertility rates and the ageing of a population. In order to address the need to develop reliable projections, it is unavoidable to detect appropriate measures to represent the future trends of the quantities of interest. The aim of the paper is apply to Italian data a mathematical scheme suitable for projecting the fertility rates and for measuring the uncertainty around these estimates. Finally a numerical application is provided.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
