The Not Too Surprising Democratic Retention of the Senate

In the 22 midterm elections between 1934 to 2018, the president’s party has averaged a loss of four Senate seats. However, while the president’s party gained seats in the House only three times, it gained seats in the Senate on six occasions. Thus, it is true that in terms of the House and gubernatorial races, President Biden and the Democratic Party pulled off a midterm result for the record books. However, the 2022 Senate result is not as exceptional as it may have seemed at first glance. This chapter reflects on the peculiarities of the 2022 Senate midterm elections, putting into perspective this year’s results with classic early predictions based on economic growth, levels of public approval of incumbent presidents, and the number of seats to be defended.