The Future of the Italian Family: Evidence from a Household Projection Model

The purpose of this chapter is to illustrate household projections for Italy from 2021 to 2041. We applied a static method to the projected population estimates, which are annually updated by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat). Our approach is based on the Propensity rate model that are proven to meet the requirements of parsimony, simplicity, replicability and quality. The method also provides future time series data of the population by household position (child, living with a partner with or without children, lone parent, living alone and other position), age and sex. Results show an increase in the number of households by one million in twenty years, and a decrease in their mean size, which would drop from 2.3 members per household to 2.1. Furthermore, we expect a decrease of couples with children, an increase of those without children and of people living alone.