COVID-19 and Local Mortality Estimates

This chapter provides an overview of the leading research on mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a specific focus on the local level. It first discusses the key data challenges and general methodological issues involving the estimation of the actual number of lives lost to the pandemic at all spatial scales – global, national, and subnational. Next, it reviews the main studies focusing on COVID-19 and local excess mortality for all areas in which reliable figures have been provided, and complements them with an overview of aggregate-level studies for macro-areas and countries in which local estimates currently remain unavailable. The survey highlights the persistence of severe geographic imbalances in data availability and studies coverage, even when focusing on national estimates alone. As it stands, granular excess mortality estimates have been produced only for a tiny and non-representative minority of areas. The study concludes with recommendations about methodological choices and research priorities to reduce existing data and information gaps.