The long-term sustainability of the Italian public pension system. Policies and simulations

The long term sustainability of the Italian pension system is evaluated by simulating a deterministic macro-simulation model. We show that results can change dramatically conditional on slight changes of demographic and labor market hypotheses. In particular, the consideration of an endogenous - gravity based - dynamics for net migrations and participation rates can reverse the long term dynamics of some key indicators of the financial sustainability of the Italian public pension system.