A Study on the Re-election Chances of American Presidents. Does the Unemployment Rate Matter?

It is widely believed that the state of the economy is one of the main variables in election campaigns. “It’s the economy, stupid” is one of the most celebrated phrases in American politics, and it sealed Bill Clinton’s victory over George W. Bush in 1992. Numerous press articles declare that “the next election will be decided by the economy” or that “people vote with their wallets.” And also in academe there is no lack of scholars who connect data on the economy with the re-election chances of outgoing American presidents (Campbell 2008). In many cases, however, these are only conjectures. The relationship between economic data and the electoral performance of American incumbents, in fact, is much more controversial and complex than appears at first sight.