Accurate estimation of population size is key to understanding the ecology of disease vectors, as well as the epidemiology of the pathogens they carry and to plan effective control activities. Population size can be estimated through mark-release-recapture (MRR) experiments that are based on the assumption that the ratio of recaptured individuals to the total captures approximates the ratio of marked individuals released to the total population. However, methods to obtain population size estimates usually consider pooled data and are often based on the total number of marked and unmarked captures. We here present a logistic regression model, based on the principle of the well-known Fisher-Ford method, specific for MRR experiments where the information available is the number of marked mosquitoes released, the number of marked and unmarked mosquitoes caught in each trap and on each day, and the geographic coordinates of the traps. The model estimates population size, taking into consideration the distance between release points and traps, the time between release and recapture, and the loss of marked mosquitoes to death or dispersal. The performance and accuracy of the logistic regression model has been assessed using simulated data from known population sizes. We then applied the model to data from MRR experiments with Aedes albopictus Skuse performed on the campus of "Sapienza" University in Rome (Italy). © 2013 Entomological Society of America.

Estimating mosquito population size from mark-release-recapture data / D., Cianci; J., Van Den Broek; Caputo, Beniamino; F., Marini; DELLA TORRE, Alessandra; H., Heesterbeek; N., Hartemink. - In: JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY. - ISSN 0022-2585. - STAMPA. - 50:3(2013), pp. 533-542. [10.1603/me12126]

Estimating mosquito population size from mark-release-recapture data

CAPUTO, BENIAMINO;DELLA TORRE, Alessandra;
2013

Abstract

Accurate estimation of population size is key to understanding the ecology of disease vectors, as well as the epidemiology of the pathogens they carry and to plan effective control activities. Population size can be estimated through mark-release-recapture (MRR) experiments that are based on the assumption that the ratio of recaptured individuals to the total captures approximates the ratio of marked individuals released to the total population. However, methods to obtain population size estimates usually consider pooled data and are often based on the total number of marked and unmarked captures. We here present a logistic regression model, based on the principle of the well-known Fisher-Ford method, specific for MRR experiments where the information available is the number of marked mosquitoes released, the number of marked and unmarked mosquitoes caught in each trap and on each day, and the geographic coordinates of the traps. The model estimates population size, taking into consideration the distance between release points and traps, the time between release and recapture, and the loss of marked mosquitoes to death or dispersal. The performance and accuracy of the logistic regression model has been assessed using simulated data from known population sizes. We then applied the model to data from MRR experiments with Aedes albopictus Skuse performed on the campus of "Sapienza" University in Rome (Italy). © 2013 Entomological Society of America.
2013
aedes albopictus; vector population; mark-release-recapture; vector-borne disease control; logistic regression model
01 Pubblicazione su rivista::01a Articolo in rivista
Estimating mosquito population size from mark-release-recapture data / D., Cianci; J., Van Den Broek; Caputo, Beniamino; F., Marini; DELLA TORRE, Alessandra; H., Heesterbeek; N., Hartemink. - In: JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY. - ISSN 0022-2585. - STAMPA. - 50:3(2013), pp. 533-542. [10.1603/me12126]
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11573/631584
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