CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS AND TRENDS IN ITALY WITHIN THE LAST 100 YEARS

Hundred-year trends of mean monthly temperatures and precipitations in Italy are described and analysed using the Mann-Kendall test of significance. Temperature tends to increase in November at most stations on the Peninsula, while precipitation tends to decrease in April. Temperature trends are interpreted in terms of trends in frequency of weather types. The relationship between temperature and cloud cover is then analysed. A comparison of trends with the regional output of climate simulation models (corresponding to a doubling of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere) follows, showing that, as far as precipitation is concerned, the observed decrease in spring is consistent with Community Climate Model and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Goddard Institute for Space Sciences climate simulations. Furthermore, climate fluctuations within the hundred-year period are examined in relation to the Southern Oscillation Index.