Mexico and Italy : fertility intentions in settings at different stages of the fertility transition

In Western European societies below fertility replacement level has encouraged research on individual fertility intentions. However, how its role has changed throughout the different stages of the demographic transitions has been largely under-researched, partly due to the lack of adequate data. Italy and Mexico provide a good case for the study of fertility intentions, with Italy having completed the fertility transition and Mexico having geographical areas which are at different stages of the demographic transition. The focus of the study is to investigate fertility intentions at the different stages of fertility transition. The assumption is that cross-territorial differences will reflect the cross-temporal differences in the transitional process. Using cross sectional survey data for Italy and Mexico, we compare fertility intentions in the two countries which are both catholic and have low prevalence of marital dissolution. In addition, fertility intentions are explored by women’s educational level, as Western European literature has emphasized that education is an important factor triggering fertility decisions, and ultimately, complete family size. Findings indicate that the proportion of women who intend to have multiple children does change across the different stages of the demographic transition, at each parity status, as shown in the three geographical territories of Mexico. Furthermore, two different associations are found between educational attainment and childbearing intentions, a negative for Mexico and positive for Italy