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EnglishIn the analysis of economic and social issues of a country (or any larger or smaller socio-economic unit) the demographic dynamics of the considered population often play a crucial role. Very current emergencies in this respect are e.g. ageing, longevity risk, state-run healthcare etc. Over the last decade migration between EU countries also became an important issue, and in recent years the uncontrolled migration from non-EU countries is also a major concern. Therefore, the better theoretical understanding of the evolutionary mechanism of age-classified populations interacting via migration, is a timely modelling-methodological task. This paper is a preliminary demographic methodological contribution to a further research in support of socio-economic modelling and decision making concerning migration issues. It is known that in the framework of the classical age-specific Leslie model, under simple demographic conditions, a closed population in the long term tends to an equilibrium age distribution. As the main theoretical result of the paper, a similar convergence is proved for a system of several populations with migration between them, and this long-term behaviour (convergence theorem) is extended to systems of sex-structured populations. Based on the latter model, medium term projections are also analysed concerning the effect of migration among countries on the development of the old-age dependency ratio (the proportion of pensioner age classes to active ones), which is an aggregate scalar indicator of ageing, a major concern in most industrialized countries. Illustrative simulation analysis is carried out with data from three European countries.
On the asymptotic equilibrium of a population system with migration / Pianese, Augusto; ATTIAS, Anna; BIANCHI, SERGIO; VARGA, ZOLTAN. - In: INSURANCE MATHEMATICS & ECONOMICS. - ISSN 0167-6687. - 92:(2020), pp. 115-127. [10.1016/j.insmatheco.2020.03.005]
| Titolo: | On the asymptotic equilibrium of a population system with migration | |
| Data di pubblicazione: | 2020 | |
| Autori: | ||
| Stringa autori: | Pianese, Augusto; ATTIAS, Anna; BIANCHI, SERGIO; VARGA, ZOLTAN | |
| Numero degli autori: | 4 | |
| Lingua: | Inglese | |
| Rivista: | INSURANCE MATHEMATICS & ECONOMICS | |
| Revisione (peer review): | Esperti anonimi | |
| Volume: | 92 | |
| Pagina iniziale: | 115 | |
| Pagina finale: | 127 | |
| Numero di pagine: | 13 | |
| Digital Object Identifier (DOI): | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2020.03.005 | |
| Codice identificativo Scopus: | 2-s2.0-85082662781 | |
| Codice identificativo ISI: | WOS:000532801300009 | |
| Abstract: | In the analysis of economic and social issues of a country (or any larger or smaller socio-economic unit) the demographic dynamics of the considered population often play a crucial role. Very current emergencies in this respect are e.g. ageing, longevity risk, state-run healthcare etc. Over the last decade migration between EU countries also became an important issue, and in recent years the uncontrolled migration from non-EU countries is also a major concern. Therefore, the better theoretical understanding of the evolutionary mechanism of age-classified populations interacting via migration, is a timely modelling-methodological task. This paper is a preliminary demographic methodological contribution to a further research in support of socio-economic modelling and decision making concerning migration issues. It is known that in the framework of the classical age-specific Leslie model, under simple demographic conditions, a closed population in the long term tends to an equilibrium age distribution. As the main theoretical result of the paper, a similar convergence is proved for a system of several populations with migration between them, and this long-term behaviour (convergence theorem) is extended to systems of sex-structured populations. Based on the latter model, medium term projections are also analysed concerning the effect of migration among countries on the development of the old-age dependency ratio (the proportion of pensioner age classes to active ones), which is an aggregate scalar indicator of ageing, a major concern in most industrialized countries. Illustrative simulation analysis is carried out with data from three European countries. | |
| Parole Chiave: | Demography of population systems; Migration of labour force; Equilibrium age distribution; Ageing; Old-age dependency ratio | |
| Appartiene alla tipologia: | 01a Articolo in rivista |
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http://hdl.handle.net/11573/1384204
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