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EnglishAre Italy’s primary-surplus policies compatible with the sustainability of government debt? We address the question by examining historical budget data in post-unification Italy, from 1861 to 2016. Controlling for temporary output, temporary spending and world war-time periods in assessing whether primary surpluses significantly reacted to changes in debt, we find the following results: (i) the hypothesis of nonlinearity in the surplus-debt relationship significantly outperforms the hypothesis of linearity; (ii) there exists a threshold level in the debt-GDP ratio, approximately equal to 105 percent, above which Italian fiscal policy makers are concerned with corrective actions to avoid insolvency; (iii) the robustly positive reaction of primary surpluses to debt beyond the trigger point ensures fiscal sustainability.
Evaluating the sustainability of Italian public finances / POSTIGLIOLA, MICHELE; PIERGALLINI, ALESSANDRO. - In: THE NORTH AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE. - ISSN 1062-9408. - (2020). [10.1016/j.najef.2020.101180]
| Titolo: | Evaluating the sustainability of Italian public finances | |
| Data di pubblicazione: | 2020 | |
| Autori: | ||
| Stringa autori: | POSTIGLIOLA, MICHELE; PIERGALLINI, ALESSANDRO | |
| Numero degli autori: | 2 | |
| Nazionalità autore: | ITALIA | |
| Lingua: | Inglese | |
| Rivista: | THE NORTH AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE | |
| Revisione (peer review): | Esperti anonimi | |
| Numero articolo: | 101180 | |
| Numero di pagine: | 10 | |
| Editore: | Elsevier | |
| Digital Object Identifier (DOI): | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2020.101180 | |
| Codice identificativo Scopus: | 2-s2.0-85082428491 | |
| Codice identificativo ISI: | WOS:000541539200001 | |
| Abstract: | Are Italy’s primary-surplus policies compatible with the sustainability of government debt? We address the question by examining historical budget data in post-unification Italy, from 1861 to 2016. Controlling for temporary output, temporary spending and world war-time periods in assessing whether primary surpluses significantly reacted to changes in debt, we find the following results: (i) the hypothesis of nonlinearity in the surplus-debt relationship significantly outperforms the hypothesis of linearity; (ii) there exists a threshold level in the debt-GDP ratio, approximately equal to 105 percent, above which Italian fiscal policy makers are concerned with corrective actions to avoid insolvency; (iii) the robustly positive reaction of primary surpluses to debt beyond the trigger point ensures fiscal sustainability. | |
| Parole Chiave: | Fiscal sustainability; Government debt; Fiscal policy rules; Non-linear models | |
| Appartiene alla tipologia: | 01a Articolo in rivista |
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